Hong Kong’s earnings may be influenced by the direct links between mainland and Taiwan for now but it could gain a lot from the booming cross-Straits business in the long run, according to economists.

Planes and ships flying across the Straits earlier could not finish the journey directly. They usually had to transfer at Hong Kong or Macao special administrative region (SARs).

Now the direct routes could make Hong Kong lose about HK$10 million, or 3.4% of its external trade, said Billy Wong, senior economist with the Hong Kong trade Development Council (HKTDC). But they don’t think the loss will be drastic in the short term.

About 70% of Taiwan-to-mainland cargo is destined for the electronics industry in the Pearl River Delta region and Hong Kong serves as a “consolidation center” for the firms transporting the cargo.

The SAR is a free port and will go on being the desirable transit point for many of these firms while it can also be a processing site.

The change of the direct routes will shock sectors related to aviation because based on the estimates of HKTDC, passenger numbers and cargo volume to-and-from Taiwan will drop by 5% and 20%.

According to the figures from Airport Authority of Hong Kong, about 5 million cross-Straits travelers used the SAR as a transit point last year — that’s about 11 percent of the total number of passengers who passed through the airport. The SAR handled 280,000 tons of cargo transshipments, too, which comprised about 7.4 percent of its throughput.

But people who will suffer the most may be bus operators carrying travelers between Hong Kong and Guangdong airports.

If the number of flights between Shenzhen and Taipei increases to 24 every week, these bus operators will lose jobs, said Chow Hing-wong, Hong Kong-Guangdong Boundary Crossing Bus Association secretary.

But Hong Kong could benefit form the booming business created by the direct links. Susie Chiang, chairwoman of Hong Kong-Taiwan Business Association said that the city’s strength in finance and legal services will attract Taiwan firms after an open policy framework is set up.

Hong Kong would be considered as a trading platform for Taiwan firms to tap the overseas market.

The SAR needed to strengthen its business links in fields like tourism with Taiwan, said Zhu Wenhui, research fellow with Hong Kong China Business Centre of Hong Kong Polytechnic University.

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