The contribution of trade to China’s economic growth falls
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said yesterday that the contribution of trade to China’s economic growth fell to 12.5 percent in the first nine months of this year. The decline and the worsening global financial crisis have caused economists to forecast harder period for the exporters during the first half of next year.
Compared with 2.4 percentage points in the nine months last year, goods and services trade contributed 1.2 percentage points to the country’s 9.9 percent GDP growth, said NBS spokesman Liu Xiaochao in a press conference yesterday.
Since last year, a large number of domestic exporters have gone bankrupt because the world economic slowdown, the appreciation of yuan, rising costs as well as tightened credit. The export growth of China in the first nine months dropped 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. Analysts said this slow growth will not only affect the Chinese economic, but also its neighboring economics. “With export orders declining, China will reduce its imports… This will create an impact on the rest of the Asian-Pacific region,” said Sherman Chan, researcher with Moody’s Economy.com
For instance, Australia man face a dramatically slowdown in resource exports, which is its major growth engine in recent years. Japan, South Korea, and the electronic-specializing Association in South Asia will feel the pressure of economy, too.
“The end of China’s dream run will mark the end of Asia Pacific boom,” Chan said.
The state Council has promised to raise the export rebate for textile, apparel and mechanical and electrical equipment exporters to stabilize the trade growth. According to Li Mingxu, it has been much clearer for the policy direction and the government will support the low-end manufacturing sectors if their profit margins are low. However, China’s trade growth would probably drop further at least in the first half of next year in spite of the help from government, according to Liu Jian, researcher with the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, which is affiliated to the Ministry of Commerce.
Many economists and international agencies have forecast that the US and European economies would only get out of the crisis in the second half of next year. Past experience tells us that government support is limited to such a situation. That is why the actual improvement of external environment is important to the economy, Li Jian said.
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