Citing people familiar with the situation, the report in the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday pointed that Morgan Stanley had asked potential buyers to submit indicative first-round bids for its 34.3 percent stake in CICC.

It reported the deal may obtain more than $1 billion.

Two people work for the US investment band and CICC, who both would like to keep anonymity, confirmed separately the news, saying that the CICC stake sale was a signal to Morgan Stanley setting up another local joint venture.

The Chinese government will not agree with the new joint venture, unless it sells the CICC stake, the sources added.

Morgan Stanley is going to form a joint venture securities firm with Shanghai-based China Fortune Securities Co, which it will have more management say.

Morgan Stanley was the first foreign investment bank who entered the country in the year 1995 when it invested $35 million in partnership with State-owned China Construction Bank to form CICC.

As one of the China’s biggest investment bank, CICC has specialized in clear up Stateowned firms in front of initial public offerings.

However, Morgan Stanley did not have much influence over CICC’s management led by Zhu Yunlai, the president of the enterprise, and had limited control to the operation of the brokerage during the past ten years.

The time that the US firm began to selling its stake was in 2007. Several international private-equity firms all included in the final bidders, such as Bain Capital, TPG and a consortium comprising General Atlantic, Starr International and JC Flowers.

However, early in the year 2008, this process came to an end after offers came in below expectations amid the onset of the global credit crisis.

The Financial Times reported, quoting people familiar with the situation, by the end of the first round, the original offer of more than $1 billion for the stake had dropped to around $600 million.
This followed a due-diligence process when bidders fond that the CICC management was unsatisfied with the current shareholding arrangement.

Under the structure, non-voting shares were allowed by the management which entitled them to paid dividends and could effectively dilute Morgan Stanley’s shareholding to around 27 percent.

But on Nov. 5, 2009, a source from CICC announced that this time around, it was very likely that Morgan Stanley is going sell its 34.3- percent stake for $1 billion since China’s booming stock market could propose considerable bargaining power on the seller’s side.

In 2007 the CICC’s net profit was 1.24 billion yuan, however, in the year 2008, the net profit dropped 49 percent to 627.4 million yuan. Net profit is expected to climb this year amid a rebound in China’s capital markets, one of the few bright spots worldwide. CICC has taken on little debt and has concentrated on fee income, leaving it with a strong balance sheet.

After inheriting the stake originally held by China Construction Bank, China’s sovereign wealth fund, China Investment Corp, became its largest shareholder with a 43.35- percent stake. Government of Singapore In vestment Corp, another sovereign wealth fund, holds a 7.35-percent stake.

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Chinese officials pressed for foreign countries to create a convenient and fair environment to make it easier for Chinese investors to continue to invest.

Comparing with the traditional big spenders, including the United States and European countries, who slowed their outbound investment, investment from China in overseas markets has increasing remarkably recently.

Zhang Xiaoqiang, vice-director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said despite the world’s financial crisis, China was still raising its overseas efforts. Many of China’s companies were active investors.

China’s overseas direct investment rose 190 percent in the third quarter during the same period last year. According to the statistics from the Ministry of Commerce, the investment reached to $32.87 billion for the first nine months.

Zhang added that growth has been a blessing for many countries recently.

Jon Huntsman, the US ambassador to China had the same opinion. He said that China’s investment was significant in improving and stimulating the world economy.

The US has benefited from the investments of other nations, Huntsman added. Throughout the 2003-to-2008 period, countries invested over $325 billion in some 4,300 projects in the US.

China was one of the nations whose investment in the US is fastest-growing, said Huntsman, with an annual growth rate in investment amount of 30% in 2004-2008 periods.

Taffere Tesfachew, chief of the Office of the Secretary-General under the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that China is one of the leading nations in stimulating the revival of developing economies by way of investment.

The figures from UNCTAD shows that in the year 2008, investment flowing out of the US declined by 18 percent to $312 billion, meanwhile flowing from EU nations fall by 30 percent to $837 billion. However, emerging economies, especially China, increased overseas investment, Tesfachew said.

He also said that nations and regional areas would benefit a lot from it, Africa and Asia in particular.

Some small islands in Caribbean like Grenada have great sunshine to grow plants and many other advantageous sectors to tap, F. Marcelle Gairy, Grenada’s ambassador to China, said. China has good technology to achieve their dreams.

She added it was win-win investment.

Mifzal Ahmed, advisor on investments for the Maldives’ Ministry of Economic Development, said China’s technology was cheaper, innovative and very practical.

Although the UNCTAD predicts that the investment outflows from Asia will slow down its speed this year, the organization still believes this region will still excel the rest of the world.

Tesfachew said outflows from China and India were the most prominent.

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Washington would like to offer a reduction in its allowable level of subsidies, but it would do this only to increase market access for its exports, Ed Schafer told reporters in Beijing. He arrived at Beijing on Tuesday for the two-day Sino-US Strategic Economic Dialogue which begins today.

“We in the United States keep confident that we can see a successful conclusion to the Doha round this year,” said he, lauding China’s efforts in the global trade talks. Last month, the APEC meeting was held in Peru. At the meeting, leaders decided to reach an agreement this month on the outlines of a World Trade Organization pact that collapsed in July after seven years of negotiations. “Negotiations have now stretched from agricultural products into non-agricultural products,” he said, “Over the last two months much progress has been made… under the help of China and Brazil.”

On Tuesday, four US lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee published a letter requiring the outgoing Bush administration not to rush into a deal that could finally be rejected by the incoming Congress.

However, in Schafer’s opinion, “The issue of subsidies… is a strong issue in these negotiations and the US is ready and willing to do its part to come to an agreement. If you look at the calendar, that only gives us about three more weeks. But we do remain confident.”

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Du made these remarks at a recent national meeting and they were posted on the NDRC’s website on Nov 26. This is the first public risk assessment made by the government since the outbreak of the financial crisis. Even if the financial storm has sent some export-oriented manufacturers close, he still evades the conventional thinking that the East China will be hit the hardest amid the global crisis.

Present at Du’s speech, an NDRC official told China Daily anonymously that Du offered three reasons to support his point:

First, most business in central and western China are small-scale and resource-intensive so it’s difficult for them to adapt to changes caused by the crisis. Second, businesses based on raw materials will be seriously influenced if the price of raw materials keeps dropping in international market. Finally, less job opportunities for migrant workers from bankrupt factories in East China would give rise to social conflicts. And the central and western regions are major labor exporters in China.

Those are agreed by others. Senior researcher with the State Information Centre Zhang Yongjun said such economic woes suffered by the lower-stream economy (manufacturers) will be passed on to the upper-stream economy (raw material suppliers). He said, “So far, the eastern part of China is more hurt by the financial crisis than the central and western regions, because its economy depends on export and manufacturing. But the impacts will soon pass on to the upper-stream economy, which is located mostly in central and western China.” he also added price fluctuations of raw materials are more violent than those of lower-stream products.

However, local entrepreneurs in such places haven’t got so much pressure from the crisis. According to Yang Xinmin, head of the planning department of Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group based in Northwestern China’s Shanxi Province, he thought East China will be hit more than them because economies in East China depend more on export. But only a small part of businesses in their places get the influences because the pricing system of Coal and crude oil are controlled by the government so that it is seldom affected by the price fluctuation in the global market.

An unnamed NDRC official suggested that the central and western economies should make some changes on its economic form from East China so that they could be much stronger in financial turbulence. He also mentioned that the 4-trillion-yuan stimulus plan should be allocated more to the central as well as western regions.

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Qu, a sales manager for well-known Chinese cookware brand Supor, said that compared with previous occasions, the number of clients she had this year on the first day of Canton Fair reduced by 80%.

Cloyce D. Palmer, a buyer of agricultural equipment from the United States also said that business people from US were absent from China’s largest trade fair. What is more, he had no plans to buy anything this year, since US distributors cancelled their orders before his trip.

This reflects how China’s manufacturing sector is affected by the impact of the financial crisis as demand from developed economies reduced. Exports are still robust but the growth rate has declined. It is said that the crisis may spread to non-financial sectors.

According to statistics released by the National Statistics Bureau, China’s foreign trade reached $1.97 trillion for the first three quarters, up 25.2 percent year-on-year. However, the 22.3 percent year-on-year export growth is 2.8 percentage points lower than last year.

Wang Zixian, a researcher with the Ministry of Commerce, estimated that actual export growth for the first three quarters has actually declined to single digits if other factors such as export price increases and exchange rates are taken into account. “This is a big risk for a country like China that is heavily dependent on exports,” Wang said in a recent interview. “The fundamentals of the macro economy will get hit if there is an impact on exports.”

The authorities have done something to maintain the stability of export growth. On Sunday, export tax rebates increased for more than 3,000 products, including textile and garments, the worst hit, and high value-added electrical and mechanical products.

Another choice for worried entrepreneurs is to the still robust domestic market.

Retail sales rose 22 percent to 7.79 trillion yuan in the first nine months, up 6.1 percentage points year-on-year.

Therefore, life is not so difficult for firms with a large domestic market. Qu from Supor said that although the exports have been influenced, the firm’s overall business will not suffer much because its major market is in China. According to the company, its domestic sales soared 36 percent in the first half of this year, while exports rose 15.9 percent.

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He Meihua, city Major, said on 20th October, “Though Yiwu’s growth rate from January to September is a little lower year-on-year, it is still astonishing.”

Because of the government’s support polices and local enterprises’ efforts to enlarge their export destinations, Yiwu’s exports in the first three quarters increased by 28 percent to 404,400 containers year-on-year.

“Though the export growth has been slower a little, Yiwu has not lost its charm. Part of the enterprises and individual businessmen do confront the difficulties.” He added.

He said, “The local government, confident of facing any challenge, will pay attention to such enterprises and give a hand them if necessary.”

In the second half of the year, due to the global financial crisis, China’s coastal area’s foreign trade volume and some of the industrial units’ value-added output and profit growth dropped slightly.

The local government declared a series of policies and provided 200 million Yuan to help local companies improve their innovation, adjust their products portfolio and enhance their added value, in order to relieve the influence of the global economic slowdown.

In the first nine months of the year, about 1,400 applications for patents were filed in Yiwu, 900 of which were approved. This shows the solid base of the city and the greater role technology-oriented enterprises are playing in its industrial growth.

Since the demand from the US and Europe became smaller, exporters in Yiwu have been trying to expand their destinations. The sluggish market in Europe has more than counteracted by the growth in Middle East, Africa and Latin America. And the demand from emerging markets like India, Russia and Brazil has almost doubled.

The five-day 2008 China Yiwu International Commodity Fair, which opened on 21st October, is another indication of Yiwu’s strength. The fair has appealed over 2,800 firms, about 300 more than 2007.

The city has long been known for setting up one of the largest consumer commodity markets in China, which has grown from 2.6 million sq m two years ago to 4 million sq m today.

An international hall, with 45 booths has been unveiled in 2008, attracting 27 exhibitors from 22 countries, including the US, the UK, Japan, Italy and Brazil.

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The country may bear more uncertainties in export and import business because of the worsening situation in the international market.

In the first eight months of the year, China’s exports increased to $937.7 billion by 22.4 percent and 3.3 percent less than last year. Imports were up to 785.7 billion by 30 percent, 10.4 percent than 2007.

Owing to the growth in exports decreasing while imports were increasing, the country’s trade surplus decreased to $152 billion, $10 billion less than the year 2007.

At the same time, China’s exports to U.S.A. just increased by 10.6 percent, dropping 6.1 percent from a year earlier, while shipments to Europe and Iraq increased 26.3 percent and 15.6 percent, down 5 percent and 3.9 percent year-on-year respectively.

China’s export growth has been slowed by weakening demand in major markets such as the US because the global economic problems are continuing.

According to estimation, every 1 percent decline in US GDP would lead to a 4.75 percent drop in China’s export growth rate.

Based on the procurement managers’ index (PMI) declared by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the sub-index for new export orders was 48.4 points in September, dropping 2.3 points from a month earlier, while the purchasing sub-index plunged to 44.7 points, the first time it fell below 50 since 2006.

All the above points showed that foreign demand was declining and companies depend on exports were enduring the force of foreign imports.

Since the latter half of 2007, exporters have shown their discretion in accepting foreign orders as RMB has continued to appreciate. The value of RMB appreciated more than 6 percent in 2007.

Lots of export enterprises changed long-term orders into short-term ones, and large orders into smaller ones to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations.

Exporters’ production costs were increased because of global inflationary pressures which pushing up the price of raw materials on the international market.

In recent years, the price of primary products such as crude oil, coal, steel and agricultural products have risen rapidly on both the international and domestic markets.

In the first eight months of this year, the cost of China’s imported iron ore increased 77.9 percent, crude oil was up 71.2 percent, refined oil rose 91.7 percent, coal jumped 64.9 percent, and soybeans jumped 79.2 percent.

Additionally, the markup of manufactured products’ prices fell behind that of primary products because of keen competition and weakening demand on the international market.

Export-oriented enterprises’ burdens were added by other factors like increased labor costs and environmental protection expenditure.

These elements forced a slowdown in China’s foreign trade, with its growth rate expected to linger between 15 and 20 percent this year.

From 2009, the pace of growth in overall exports and imports may have slowed down largely, with the growth rate falling below 15 percent and the trade surplus remaining at $200 billion.
Coping with the situation

A number of measures should be taken to stimulate overseas demand to deal with the worsening situation in foreign trade.

First, the government should strengthen its supervision of key export products and help exporters deal with their lack of current capital and prevent risks caused by exchange rate fluctuations.

Second, the pace of RMB’s appreciation should be reduced to maintain export growth.

Putting a lid on the value of RMB or even making it slightly depreciate against the US dollar would help exporters restore their confidence.

Third, the destination of exported products must be diversified.

Increased exports to emerging markets such as the Middle East, Russia and Latin America may help to lessen the serious effect of declining exports to developed countries.

Fourth, transferring labor from exporters to other sectors slowly would relieve the heavy burden on domestic employment caused by the slowing growth of export business.

Finally, it is vital to better the quality and added value of exported products and promote export-oriented industry’s transformation from being labor-intensive to a more capital- and technology-intensive structure.

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As the surplus goods, produced by the fall in exports, can not be digested by domestic market, many Chinese are possibly facing the problem of excess capacity, caused by easy and cheap credit in the several passing years.

The problem is particularly serious in the steel and heavy industry sectors, which play an important role in pushing the economic growth, said by economists and industry analysts.

After huge industrial investment over the past years, production of enterprises in several sectors exceeds the domestic need. Sine then, the country has begun exporting its surplus goods abroad.

In 2003, China’s total exports exceeded imports for the very first time. It is the turning point in China’s external trade. The ascending trade surplus has mostly coming several specific sectors, such as heavy industrial equipment and steel, rather than a wide range of industries.

Steel exports, for example, used to account for 25 percent of the country’s total exports during the past several years. In facing the declining global demand, major steel manufactures had decided to cut its output by 20 percent.

Customs’ statistics showed the growth rate of China’s accumulated export to the United States from January to July is 9.9 percent, the first single digit growth since 2002, 8.1 percentage points down.

It is estimated that for every point of decline in US GDP, whose growth is largely tampered by its internal demand, China’s total exports will drop 4.75 percentage points.

Light industries such as garments and toys have got the same heavy blow from falling exports. But it is said that mainly labor-intensive manufacturing industries are involved, which with little long-term capital investment. Their response will be simply cutting working hours and reducing the shifts.

Even so, thousands of small and medium-sized manufacturing enterprises in Pearl River Delta region can not escape the end of being closed down.

Latest official figures showed that China’s export growth declined to 21 percent year-on-year in August, from 26.9 percent in July. Meanwhile, industrial production growth fell to 12.8 percent year-on-year in August from 14.7 percent in July and 16 percent in June.

“Generally Chinese exports are sensitive to weaker demand in industrialized countries, especially the US,” said Zhao Xinge, a professor at China Europe International Business School. About 40 percent of China’s exports are directed to the US and European Union.

Indeed, the government has acted to ease the impact of the worsening US financial crisis on China’s economy. “We expect China’s government to continue loosening monetary policy and put its fiscal resources to stimulate investment in infrastructure,” said Jing Ulrich, managing director and chairwoman of China Equities at JPMorgan.

But it may take months, if not years, for the government measures to take effect, while the problems generated by overcapacity in some major industrial sectors are pending.

Zhang Ping, a senior steel industry analyst at Umetals, a leading domestic metal consultancy, said:” Sine 2003, there has been sharp and persistent increase of investment in the steel industry, despite some interruption during that period by the government with its macro policy of regulating overinvestment.”

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The number of booths this year is 53,000, 10,000 more than last time. Despite the encouraging changes, businessmen and analysts still have taken a cautious attitude toward China’s export prospects because of the global financial crisis, fluctuations in raw material prices, revaluation of the yuan, and a drop in consumption and other factors.

Buyers from US and Europe has greatly lessened this year, worse than that, US buyers do not want to attend such fair even in their own countries. Zhang Bin, a senior manager of the Qingdao-based company, said that the negative sides caused by the financial crisis would last at least one year. Changes also happened to Dubai-based Naghi Yasil, he said that because of uncertainties about the consumption market early next year and prices of raw materials and commodities, he may change his long-term deals into short- term ones.

According to the figures posted by the Ministry of Commerce, during the first three quarters of this year, China’s exports rose 22.3 percent to $1.07 trillion and imports increased 29 percent to $893.1 billion.

The growth of exports has shown an acceleration of 0.4 percentage points over the first half of the year, but is 4.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year.

“Although the export figures are not so discouraging,” Zhang Yansheng, director of the International Economic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said, “But the country’s exporters arein a very difficult situation.”

Commerce officials are trying to boost the confidence of exporters. In addition, it is believed that China’s economy is still strong.

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The first one is number of graduates. The official figures shows job hunter number will grow to 6 million with 7 percent increase of this year.

The second one is experience. Carol Cai, a employee of British market research company TNS said,” First, the new recruits are halved, besides, most positions requires experience”. “Fresh graduate posses disadvantage when hunting job with unemployed experienced ones.” Tang Xiaolin, director of the career development center of Fudan University had similar opinion.

The third one is competitors from studies overseas. “Those studying abroad will most likely return home for jobs because of the tight job market,” Tang from Fudan University said.

How graduates face gloomy job market? Here is some graduates’ voice.

“There are still campus presentation, but it’s more like self-promotion instead of real recruitment, they just cut their job plans,” said Lin Huihui, a graduate who majored in international commerce at Fudan University.

“Job hunting is tough than I’ve ever think. I’ve applied for about 20 positions as a researcher or analyst for multinational companies, nonprofit organizations, private enterprises and associations — whatever options I can think of, but it’s hard to get even an interview. It does not matter whether my major fits my future job. The most important is whether I can find a job”. Xiao Jiang, finance major from Zhejiang University said when accepting the interview.

To get rid of job hunting and be more competitive, some graduates decide to choose further study for higher degrees which may improve their chances of entering the workplace.

”There is no doubt the financial crisis has already and will raise the unemployment rate. It will remain high for a considerable period of time after the financial crisis subsides and economic growth resumes,” education analyst Lin Yuxuan suggested, “Further study could only add to fiercer competition in the next few years, when more students graduate. What’s important for graduates now is lower their expectations and add experience which can help them be more competitive.”

Are you interested in the business opportunities in China?

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BPOVIA is the leading virtual assistant and Knowledge process outsourcing (KPO) service provider in China. BPOVIA is the only virtual assistant company ever been nominated for the prestigious “Red Herring 100 Asia” Awards 2008. Combines international perspective with local know-how, BPOVIA can provide our clients China business development service and help our clients doing successful business in China.

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